Blog Post
Bank of Canada Maintains Overnight Rate Target and Unveils New Market Operations
Christine Buemann • April 15, 2020
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at ¼ percent, which the Bank considers its effective lower bound. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank also announced new measures to provide additional support to Canada’s financial system.
The necessary efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic have caused a sudden and deep contraction in economic activity and employment worldwide. In financial markets, this has driven a flight to safety and a sharp repricing of a wide range of assets. It has also pushed down prices for commodities, especially oil. In this environment, the Canadian dollar has depreciated since January, although by less than many other currencies. The sudden halt in global activity will be followed by regional recoveries at different times, depending on the duration and severity of the outbreak in each region. This means that the global economic recovery, when it comes, could be protracted and uneven.
The Canadian economy was in a solid position ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak, but has since been hit by widespread shutdowns and lower oil prices. One early measure of the extent of the damage was an unprecedented drop in employment in March, with more than one million jobs lost across Canada. Many more workers reported shorter hours, and by early April some six million Canadians had applied for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit.
The outlook is too uncertain at this point to provide a complete forecast. However, Bank analysis of alternative scenarios suggests the level of real activity was down 1-3 percent in the first quarter of 2020, and will be 15-30 percent lower in the second quarter than in fourth-quarter 2019. CPI inflation is expected to be close to 0 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This is primarily due to the transitory effects of lower gasoline prices.
The pandemic-driven contraction has prompted decisive policy action to support individuals and businesses and to lay the foundation for economic recovery once containment measures start to ease. Fiscal programs, designed to expand according to the magnitude of the shock, will help individuals and businesses weather this shutdown phase of the pandemic, and support incomes and confidence leading into the recovery. These programs have been complemented by actions taken by other federal agencies and provincial governments.
For its part, the Bank of Canada has taken measures to improve market function so that monetary policy actions have their intended effect on the economy. This helps ensure that households and businesses continue to have access to the credit they need to bridge this difficult time, and that lower interest rates find their way to ultimate borrowers. The Bank has lowered its target for the overnight rate 150 basis points over the last three weeks, to its effective lower bound. It has also conducted lending operations to financial institutions and asset purchases in core funding markets amounting to around $200 billion.
These actions have served to ease market dysfunction and help keep credit channels open, although they remain strained. The next challenge for markets will be managing increased demand for near-term financing by federal and provincial governments, and businesses and households. The situation calls for special actions by the central bank. To this end, the Bank is furthering its efforts with several important steps.
Under its previously-announced program, the Bank will continue to purchase at least $5 billion in Government of Canada securities per week in the secondary market, and will increase the level of purchases as required to maintain proper functioning of the government bond market. Also, the Bank is temporarily increasing the amount of Treasury Bills it acquires at auctions to up to 40 percent, effective immediately.
The Bank is also announcing today the development of a new Provincial Bond Purchase Program of up to $50 billion, to supplement its Provincial Money Market Purchase Program. Further, the Bank is announcing a new Corporate Bond Purchase Program, in which the Bank will acquire up to a total of $10 billion in investment grade corporate bonds in the secondary market. Both of these programs will be put in place in the coming weeks. Finally, the Bank is further enhancing its term repo facility to permit funding for up to 24 months.
These measures will work in combination to ease pressure on Canadian borrowers. As containment restrictions are eased and economic activity resumes, fiscal and monetary policy actions will help underpin confidence and stimulate spending by consumers and businesses to restore growth. The Bank’s Governing Council stands ready to adjust the scale or duration of its programs if necessary. All the Bank’s actions are aimed at helping to bridge the current period of containment and create the conditions for a sustainable recovery and achievement of the inflation target over time.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 3, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on July 15, 2020.
Here is a copy of the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report
for April 2020.
RECENT POSTS
Deciding to list your home for sale is a big decision. And while there are many reasons you might want/need to sell, here are 3 questions you should ask yourself; and have answers to, before taking that step. What is my plan to get my property ready for sale? Assessing the value of your home is an important first step. Talking with a real estate professional will help accomplish that. They will be able to tell you what comparable properties in your area have sold for and what you can expect to sell your property for. They will also know specific market conditions and be able to help you put a plan together. But as you’re putting together that plan, here are a few discussion points to work through. A little time/money upfront might increase the final sale price. Declutter and depersonalize Minor repairs A fresh coat of interior/exterior paint New fixtures Hire a home stager or designer Exterior maintenance Professional pictures and/or virtual tour But then again, these are all just considerations; selling real estate isn’t an exact science. Current housing market conditions will shape this conversation. The best plan of action is to find a real estate professional you trust, ask a lot of questions, and listen to their advice. What are the costs associated with selling? Oftentimes it’s the simple math that can betray you. In your head, you do quick calculations; you take what you think your property will sell for and then subtract what you owe on your mortgage; the rest is profit! Well, not so fast. Costs add up when selling a home. Here is a list of costs you’ll want to consider. Real estate commissions (plus tax) Mortgage discharge fees and penalties Lawyer’s fees Utilities and property tax account settlements Hiring movers and/or storage fees Having the exact figures ahead of time allows you to make a better decision. Now, the real wildcard here is the potential mortgage penalty you might pay if you break your existing mortgage. If you need help figuring this number out, get in touch! What is my plan going forward? If you’re already considering selling your home, it would be fair to guess that you have your reasons. But as you move forward, make sure you have a plan that is free of assumptions. If you plan to move from your existing property to another property that you will be purchasing, make sure you have worked through mortgage financing ahead of time. Just because you’ve qualified for a mortgage in the past doesn’t mean you’ll qualify for a mortgage in the future. Depending on when you got your last mortgage, a lot could have changed. You’ll want to know exactly what you can qualify for before you sell your existing property. If you’d like to talk through all your options, connect anytime! It would be a pleasure to work with you and provide you with professional, unbiased advice.
A no-frills service or product is where non-essential features have been removed from the product or service to keep the price as low as possible. And while keeping costs low at the expense of non-essential features might be okay when choosing something like which grocery store to shop at, which economy car to purchase, or which budget hotel to spend the night, it’s not a good idea when considering which lender to secure mortgage financing. Here’s why. When securing mortgage financing, your goal should be to pay the least amount of money over the term. Your plan should include having provisions for unexpected life changes. Unlike the inconvenience of shopping at a store that doesn’t provide free bags, or driving a car without power windows, or staying at a hotel without any amenities, the so-called “frills” that are stripped away to provide you with the lowest rate mortgage are the very things that could significantly impact your overall cost of borrowing. Depending on the lender, a “no-frills” mortgage rate might be up to 0.20% lower than a fully-featured mortgage. And while this could potentially save you a few hundreds of dollars over a 5-year term, please understand that it could also potentially cost you thousands (if not tens of thousands) of dollars should you need to break your mortgage early. So if you’re considering a “no-frills” mortgage, here are a few of the drawbacks to think through: You'll pay a significantly higher penalty if you need to break your mortgage. You'll have limited pre-payment privileges. Potential limitations if you want to port your mortgage to a different property. You might be limited in your ability to refinance your mortgage (without incurring a considerable penalty). Simply put, a “no-frills” mortgage is an entirely restrictive mortgage that leaves you without any flexibility. There are many reasons you might need to keep your options open. You might need to break your term because of a job loss or marital breakdown, or maybe you decide to take a new job across the country, or you need to buy a property to accommodate your growing family. Life is unpredictable; flexibility matters. So why do banks offer a no-frills mortgage anyway? Well, when you deal with a single bank or financial institution, it’s the banker’s job to make as much money from you as possible, even if that means locking you into a very restrictive mortgage product by offering a rock bottom rate. Banks know that 2 out of 3 people break their mortgage within three years (33 months). However, when you seek the expert advice of an independent mortgage professional, you can expect to see mortgage options from several institutions showcasing mortgage products best suited for your needs. We have your best interest in mind and will help you through the entire process. A mortgage is so much more than just the lowest rate. If you have any questions about this, or if you’d like to discuss anything else mortgage-related, please get in touch. Working with you would be a pleasure!
If you have a variable rate mortgage and recent economic news has you thinking about locking into a fixed rate, here’s what you can expect will happen. You can expect to pay a higher interest rate over the remainder of your term, while you could end up paying a significantly higher mortgage penalty should you need to break your mortgage before the end of your term. Now, each lender has a slightly different way that they handle the process of switching from a variable rate to a fixed rate. Still, it’s safe to say that regardless of which lender you’re with, you’ll end up paying more money in interest and potentially way more money down the line in mortgage penalties should you have to break your mortgage. Interest rates on fixed rate mortgages Fixed rate mortgages come with a higher interest rate than variable rate mortgages. If you’re a variable rate mortgage holder, this is one of the reasons you went variable in the first place; to secure the lower rate. The perception is that fixed rates are somewhat “safe” while variable rates are “uncertain.” And while it’s true that because the variable rate is tied to prime, it can increase (or decrease) within your term, there are controls in place to ensure that rates don’t take a roller coaster ride. The Bank of Canada has eight prescheduled rate announcements per year, where they rarely move more than 0.25% per announcement, making it impossible for your variable rate to double overnight. Penalties on fixed rate mortgages Each lender has a different way of calculating the cost to break a mortgage. However, generally speaking, breaking a variable rate mortgage will cost roughly three months of interest or approximately 0.5% of the total mortgage balance. While breaking a fixed rate mortgage could cost upwards of 4% of the total mortgage balance should you need to break it early and you’re required to pay an interest rate differential penalty. For example, on a $500k mortgage balance, the cost to break your variable rate would be roughly $2500, while the cost to break your fixed rate mortgage could be as high as $20,000, eight times more depending on the lender and how they calculate their interest rate differential penalty. The flexibility of a variable rate mortgage vs the cost of breaking a fixed rate mortgage is likely another reason you went with a variable rate in the first place. Breaking your mortgage contract Did you know that almost 60% of Canadians will break their current mortgage at an average of 38 months? And while you might have the best intention of staying with your existing mortgage for the remainder of your term, sometimes life happens, you need to make a change. Here’s is a list of potential reasons you might need to break your mortgage before the end of the term. Certainly worth reviewing before committing to a fixed rate mortgage. Sale of your property because of a job relocation. Purchase of a new home. Access equity from your home. Refinance your home to pay off consumer debt. Refinance your home to fund a new business. Because you got married, you combine assets and want to live together in a new property. Because you got divorced, you need to split up your assets and access the equity in your property Because you or someone close to you got sick Because you lost your job or because you got a new one You want to remove someone from the title. You want to pay off your mortgage before the maturity date. Essentially, locking your variable rate mortgage into a fixed rate is choosing to voluntarily pay more interest to the lender while giving up some of the flexibility should you need to break your mortgage. If you’d like to discuss this in greater detail, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through all your mortgage options and provide you with professional mortgage advice.
CHRISTINE BUEMANN MORTGAGE TEAM